Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 21 2023 08:57:01

ACUS48 KWNS 210856
SWOD48
SPC AC 210855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sun May 21 2023

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that upper ridging will
persist across the central CONUS throughout the week before a
southern-stream shortwave trough moves through the southern High
Plains and southern/central Plains next weekend. The relatively
stagnant upper pattern during the week will likely result in a
repeated scenario of initiation over the higher terrain of the
southern Rockies and along any surface boundaries over the central
and southern High Plains. Some severe may accompany these storms
each day, but the predictability of their location and coverage is
low at this forecast range.

As previously mentioned, a southern-stream shortwave trough may move
through the southern High Plains on D7/Saturday, resulting in a more
widespread severe threat. Even so, model run-to-run consistency is
low and forecast confidence remains too low to introduce any outlook
areas at this time.

...Mosier.. 05/21/2023

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