Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 21 2023 07:25:29

ACUS03 KWNS 210725
SWODY3
SPC AC 210724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sun May 21 2023

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Panhandle
into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas on Tuesday.

....Synopsis...
Weak flow is forecast to cover the majority of the CONUS throughout
the day on Tuesday. The only exception is across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies, which will be on the southern edge
of the upper low over southern British Columbia and Alberta. Surface
pattern will remain similar to Monday, with ridging over the
Northeast, Great Lakes, and OH Valley and lee troughing throughout
the High Plains.

Another day of scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated
across the central Rockies, as upper ridging persists across the
central CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible farther west
across NV, as weak ascent glances the region during the afternoon.

Thunderstorm potential and evolution is less clear over the southern
High Plains and adjacent portions of western OK and northwest TX,
where preceding storms (and resulting outflow) could dictate the
threat area on Tuesday. Favored scenario is currently for
afternoon/evening thunderstorm development along the dryline
extending southward across the TX Panhandle. Thunderstorms would
then evolve southeastward into the more buoyant air mass downstream
where a reservoir of mid 60s dewpoints will likely be in place. In
this scenario, an initial supercell mode is likely, with all severe
hazards possible, with a trend towards upscale growth and more
damaging gusts thereafter. As already mentioned, this evolution will
depend on the strength and evolution of antecedent storms, limiting
forecast confidence and precluding higher severe probabilities.

Widespread thunderstorms are also possible across the FL Peninsula
during the afternoon and evening. Shear will likely be slightly
weaker than Monday, limiting the severe thunderstorm potential.

...Mosier.. 05/21/2023

$$

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