Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0830
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 20 2023 23:49:57

ACUS11 KWNS 202349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202349=20
ORZ000-210145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0830
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central OR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 202349Z - 210145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated hail and localized severe gusts
will be possible into early evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased in coverage late this
afternoon across parts of central OR, within a warm and modestly
unstable (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) environment. Deep-layer
flow/shear is rather weak across the region, though a modest
increase in effective shear is possible over the next 2-3 hours as
midlevel flow gradually increases in advance of an approaching
mid/upper-level shortwave trough off of the Pacific Northwest coast.

Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates may support an isolated severe
hail threat, especially closer to the Cascades, where storm mode is
expected to be more discrete and effective shear may be slightly
stronger. Otherwise, localized strong/severe gusts will be possible
with any of the stronger cells/clusters into this evening. The
coverage and magnitude of the threat is expected to remain too
limited for watch issuance.

...Dean/Guyer.. 05/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9rK2OpvgK9FA7M0AhxC4U7jnpVd1ltwi0Qd1oBfsorDWVDW1cr4W4Ar6UaB-D38Vkke5PQ77b=
nLakjZLVJkbCmkQFQs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...MFR...

LAT...LON   43262182 44482164 45002124 45022118 45441949 45301864
            43851859 43801895 43671956 43472053 43142157 43262182=20


=3D =3D =3D
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