Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 20 2023 07:25:52

ACUS03 KWNS 200725
SWODY3
SPC AC 200724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sat May 20 2023

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Highest thunderstorm coverage on Monday is expected from central
Rockies into the southern High Plains. Severe thunderstorms coverage
is currently expected to be less than 5%.

....Synopsis...
Weak upper flow is forecast to be in place across the majority of
the CONUS early Monday morning, with the only exception being across
the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies in the vicinity of a
shortwave trough. Some thunderstorms are possible across the
northern Rockies and northern High Plains ahead of this shortwave.
Shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures,
but buoyancy will be modest and storm coverage remains uncertain.

Farther east, expansive surface ridging will extend across much of
the eastern CONUS, relegating the better low-level moisture to the
Southeast and southern Plains (on the southern/southwestern
periphery of the ridging). Lee troughing is forecast to deepen
throughout the day, contributing to a strong surface pressure
gradient across the Plains. Resulting low-level moisture advection
may result in slightly higher dewpoints and greater buoyancy across
the southern and central High Plains than Sunday. If these
conditions are realized, a few strong to severe storms are possible.
However, outflow from antecedent storms could impede this moisture
return. Additionally, there is some potential for the previous day's
storms to result in a localize vorticity maximum, which would be
accompanied by cool and cloudy conditions. Given the weak upper
flow, predictability of these features is low, limiting forecast
confidence.

...Mosier.. 05/20/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.