Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 20 2023 05:46:26

AWUS01 KWNH 200546
FFGMPD
TXZ000-201143-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0316
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 AM EDT Sat May 20 2023

Areas affected...portions of central and south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200543Z - 201143Z

Summary...The risk of flash flooding continues across portions of
south Texas tonight.

Discussion...Renewed convective development was observed across
areas north/northwest of San Antonio over the past hour or so.=20
Additionally, an small bowing convective complex was observed
over/northeast of Austin and a second bowing complex was noted
along the Rio Grande northwest of Laredo.  The storms were along
and ahead of a cold front extending across the Hill Country from
near Terrell County/6R6 northeastward to near Waco.  Along an
ahead of the front, a very moist/buoyant airmass was located
across south Texas, with nearly 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.8 inch PW
values extending from near San Antonio south and southwest toward
the Rio Grande.  The cold front will continue to interact with
this buoyant air and force scattered thunderstorm development over
the next few hours, while weak flow aloft (20-30 kts) will yield
slow-enough storm motions for flash flood concerns beneath any of
the storms over the next few hours.

Models/CAMs remain aggressive in developing a cluster of storms
(or perhaps a complex) and maintaining them southward toward the
Rio Grande through 12Z.  This scenario remains plausible, but
would require an increase of convective coverage and upscale
growth over the next few hours.  Should storms continue to
increase in coverage, mergers and slow movement would foster areas
of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates that would exceed FFG thresholds
(currently around 2 inches/hr - lower in sensitive/urbanized
areas).  Flash flooding is a possibility in this scenario.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4ieQNiSrNqk_mafEXWYh_FS_um2GXC7IFKr2GSa8yov_glNqS07Wp3CKfqZxe3hV0lHn=
MYqMutmb1Vk3k_NK7ACo-6Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31679622 30639587 30169630 29479700 28739769=20
            27679839 27019923 27549978 29210062 30130040=20
            30370009 30599911 31039787 31509733=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.