Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 20 2023 00:45:47

ACUS01 KWNS 200045
SWODY1
SPC AC 200044

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the
southern Great Plains to southwest Arkansas this evening. Large hail
should be the main threat in terms of coverage, with damaging winds
also possible.

....01z Update...

Short-wave trough that was partly responsible for early-day MCS over
KS/OK has progressed to western MO-eastern OK. This feature
continues to provide support for scattered, organized deep
convection across western AR/southeast OK. 00z sounding from LZK
supports this feature with 35kt westerly flow at 500mb. Observed
lapse rates are not that steep but adequate buoyancy resides south
of I-40 for the continuation of robust updrafts. Wind profiles
suggest a few supercells are possible, but ongoing activity is
decidedly mixed mode with clusters and short line segments.

Farther southwest across the southern Plains, scattered severe
convection persists ahead of the front, arcing from the
Metroplex-Edwards Plateau-southeast NM. Several supercells are noted
across southwest TX where MRMS data suggests very large hail has
occurred with some of these updrafts. Additionally, the decayed
remnants of an old weak MCV over northeast NM appear to be
influencing convection across southeast NM. Long-term trends suggest
this activity will continue to propagate southeast as the front
advances into this portion of the southern High Plains. Hail
continues to be the primary concern with this convection.

...Darrow.. 05/20/2023

$$

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