Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 20 2023 00:32:20

AWUS01 KWNH 200032
FFGMPD
TXZ000-200530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0315
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
831 PM EDT Fri May 19 2023

Areas affected...North and Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200030Z - 200530Z

Summary...Localized rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr will likely lead to
additional isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Semi-discrete clusters of convection continue to
proliferate across portions of North and Central Texas late this
afternoon, generally from the Dallas-Forth Worth metro area
southwestward to near San Angelo and Del Rio. The satellite
presentation of the convection is quite robust at this hour, as
many overshooting tops are persisting (and the growing greatest
collection is generally between San Angelo and Austin). That said,
rainfall rates have been relatively tame (~1-2"/hr) thus far most
places, with the exception of the most vigorous activity (between
San Angelo and Austin) which has locally exceeded 2"/hr rates
(based on MRMS esimates). The mesoscale environment continues to
look ripe for further intensification and organization of
convection, with ML CAPE ranging from 1000-3000 J/kg, precipitable
water values of 1.3-1.7 inches (near the 90th percentile, per DRT
sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear of 25-35 kts.

The threat for heavy rainfall is expected to continue across the
broader region for the next few hours, but should start to get
more confined to southwestern sections of the MPD (into central
TX) after 03z as a cold front pushes south. This is the area of
Central Texas (from San Angelo to Austin) where the greatest odds
for prolonged locally heavy rainfall reside, and where much of the
heaviest rainfall has occurred already (with MRMS depicting a
small area of 3-6" accumulations over 3 hours near Brady). For
this reason, isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
considered likely into the early overnight hours, with 1-3"/hr
rainfall rates leading to additional localized totals of up to 5"
(particularly where deep convective activity is able to
train/repeat from west-to-east). Should these totals occur over
already flooded areas, an instance or two of significant flooding
cannot be ruled out.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9D149OCsevwu8n7SmS-9UFAlz7qmh1l8D8dz0EFv7YjqtxM7PZOocv05tmXEIO0_8tao=
md4abRwOJXqAXwTRT7O5KQI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32959675 32329655 31349677 29899800 29740069=20
            30360161 31660179 32199976 32799789=20

=3D =3D =3D
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