Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0825
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 19 2023 22:33:47

ACUS11 KWNS 192233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192233=20
TXZ000-200030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0825
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

Areas affected...portions of southwestern into central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229...

Valid 192233Z - 200030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat should continue across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 229 into the evening hours. Large hail and
damaging gusts will be the primary threat with the stronger, longer
lasting storms.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts an increase in
convective coverage and intensity ahead of a southward-sagging cold
front in southwestern into central TX, with several cells showing an
increase in 50 dBZ values 25-45 kft in altitude. These storms
continue in an environment characterized by deep low-level moisture
and steep boundary layer lapse rates, contributing to 1000-2500 J/kg
of thin MLCAPE (per 22z mesoanalysis). RAP forecast soundings
suggest that roughly unidirectional vertical wind profiles with
speed shear are supporting elongated hodographs, which are adequate
for supporting multicells and splitting supercells that are in
progress per evaluation of regional radars. These storms should
continue to pose a large hail threat as well as damaging gusts
(given the well-mixed boundary layer) into the evening hours.

...Squitieri.. 05/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-6C_Wh6bZhSlymj3prCKbALwbPKkYkXAtlKQFiFABlCWrAbHP4VbaNK3MBq1yiToS9UgBCg6L=
tP_SjHVEN376YZFJq4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30940324 31610350 32410223 32380168 32340077 32369991
            32129918 31639848 31049821 30519848 29899903 29500021
            29420081 29570178 29840233 30240286 30940324=20


=3D =3D =3D
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