Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0824
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 19 2023 21:58:17

ACUS11 KWNS 192158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192157=20
ORZ000-WAZ000-200000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0824
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

Areas affected...central Oregon

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 192157Z - 200000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Marginally severe gusts and hail possible as thunderstorm
coverage increases through the afternoon. A watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows maturing cumulus and developing
thunderstorms activity across the Fremont Mountains and Oregon High
Desert. Daytime heating has allowed MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg
across the region. RAP soundings indicate profiles are fairly dry
below 500 mb with large surface dew point depressions in current
surface observations, especially within the High Desert east of the
Cascades (around 40-45 F in some locations). Given fairly weak deep
layer shear around 15 kts, storm mode will be largely multi-cell and
clustered capable of marginally severe hail and downbursts.

...Thornton/Guyer.. 05/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4SqDddJx4MvXcvGmAJo3VFsAWli3ttkO48ee2JM2r9BQXUgcepU17GEAAKu8f9v8oQWQ2HJqN=
RwCJRB1u_9P6mdsYPU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR...

LAT...LON   44232182 45242170 45762125 46002035 45821977 45121959
            43402038 43262100 43262130 43292154 43292166 43692183
            44232182=20


=3D =3D =3D
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