Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0823 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 19 2023 20:31:17 ACUS11 KWNS 192031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192030=20 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-192200- Mesoscale Discussion 0823 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 Areas affected...portions of central/eastern OK into the ArkLaTex Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227... Valid 192030Z - 192200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227 continues. SUMMARY...The risk mainly for large hail, isolated damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado will continue this afternoon/evening across portions of eastern OK and the ArkLaTex. Additional storm development over central OK may spread eastward with a severe threat later this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...As of 2025 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several strong to severe storms ongoing along the Red River across portions of southern OK and northeastern TX within WW227. Over the last several hours, these storms have produced occasional reports of severe hail with the strongest cores. These storms are ongoing within an environment characterized by moderate buoyancy with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and vertical shear of 35-40 kt, along and south of a remnant outflow boundary. Observational and hi-res model guidance trends suggest these storms (including a few supercell structures) will likely continue to pose a severe risk as they track eastward towards portions of the AR this afternoon/evening. Hail is expected to be the primary threat given the favorable buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear. Isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible, though much less certain given modest low-level flow. Farther north and west into portions of central OK, more storm development was noted along the slow-moving cold front near a remnant MCV. Slow to develop thus far, a slightly muted thermodynamic environment may allow for additional storm development through the afternoon and into this evening. Should these storms mature, the primary risk would again likely be hail with elongated, but effectively straight-line hodographs. However, confidence in the evolution of these storms is much lower owing to the slower recovery of the previously overturned air mass. ...Lyons.. 05/19/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9nocuuMu3Q8Gaq93QUlu6j70AOZJHu8Pjv38FOv1-CsFwdKpuFaweacvLK0P1gHWppsHUawIu= S7UuCsWo3FO8cbLXU8$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33359688 33929677 34369679 34689689 34939696 35229696 35409673 35199278 34429291 33669326 33039363 33029583 33359688=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .