Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 19 2023 17:31:47

ACUS02 KWNS 191731
SWODY2
SPC AC 191729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...NORTHWEST...AND SOUTH TEXAS....

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across much of
the Southeast, from the Edwards Plateau into the Rio Grande Valley
in Texas, and parts of central Oregon and Washington.

....Synopsis...
An upper-level trough across the Great Lakes region will pivot
through the Northeast on Saturday. Modest mid-level flow enhancement
will extend into parts of the Southeast. Upper-level ridging in the
West will shift slowly eastward. A shortwave trough will also
continue to approach the Northwest. At the surface, a cold front
will progress farther southward through the southern Plains and
Southeast.

....Southeast...
A very moist airmass (likely upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) is
expected across the region. An MCV currently in the Plains is
forecast to move eastward into parts of the Mid-South. Some
precipitation and cloud cover will be present across parts of
northern MS/AL/GA associated with this feature. Farther to the south
and west, at least filtered insolation will occur and lead to
greater boundary-layer destabilization by the afternoon (nearing
2000 J/kg in some areas). Widely scattered to scattered storms do
appear possible both near the MCV and along the front, though there
is still variability in guidance as to where a greater concentration
of storms would exist. Environmentally, a few more intense storms
could occur in within the central AL/MS border vicinity. Here,
greater surface heating would combine with modestly greater shear
from larger-scale trough and MCV.

....Northwest...
Little change in the pattern is expected between Friday and
Saturday. Continued southwesterly flow aloft should help to maintain
modest low-level moisture. With the approach of the trough,
deep-layer shear will likely be slightly stronger on Saturday and
storm coverage may also be greater as well. Storms will be capable
of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail.

....South Texas...
Uncertainty remains high in the exact convective evolution within
the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. Convection may be ongoing early
in the period as overnight storms from the Edwards Plateau move
southward. How far south such activity will reach is not certain.
Two other possible scenarios are for storms to develop along outflow
from that early morning activity as well as some potential for
storms to move across the international border later in the
afternoon. With the environment supportive of damaging winds and
large hail, a Marginal risk area will be maintained for these
possibilities.

...Wendt.. 05/19/2023

$$

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