Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 19 2023 08:34:18

ACUS48 KWNS 190834
SWOD48
SPC AC 190832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Recent medium-range guidance suggests the upper pattern will be free
of any significant shortwave troughs over the CONUS through at least
the middle of next week. Upper ridging is expected to be in place
across central CONUS from D4/Monday through D7/Thursday, with
surface high pressure covering much of the eastern CONUS during the
same time frame. Low-level moisture will maintained along the
southern and western periphery of this surface ridging, keeping a
large reservoir of 60+ dewpoints over the central and southern
Plains. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft is expected across the
southern Rockies during this period as well, helping to support
continued lee troughing as well as diurnal thunderstorm initiation
over the higher terrain. Additionally, moderate low-level jet is
likely across the southern and central High Plains each night during
the period.

The persistence of this pattern suggests afternoon/evening
thunderstorms will be possible over the southern and central High
Plains each day, with some potential for downstream upscale growth
into the more favorable moisture and strengthening low-level jet.
However, at this forecast range, uncertainty regarding daily storm
coverage is high, as is uncertainty regarding overall convective
evolution.

...Mosier.. 05/19/2023

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