Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 19 2023 05:42:33 AWUS01 KWNH 190542 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-191141- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0313 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 141 AM EDT Fri May 19 2023 Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle and western/central Oklahoma Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 190541Z - 191141Z Summary...A mesoscale convective complex will continue to make steady eastward progress into Oklahoma through the early morning hours. Isolated/spotty flash flood potential remains with this activity. Discussion...A cluster of thunderstorms over the eastern Texas Panhandle has picked up organization and forward speed this morning while approaching the western Oklahoma/Texas border region. While the forward speed has increased and lowered rain rates dramatically (especially within the bowing segment along I-40 near US 83), a couple of areas within the complex are exhibiting slower/repeating storm motions and higher rain rates: 1) along a band just north of the bowing segment extending from near Canadian, TX eastward into northwestern Oklahoma and 2) along the trailing flank of the complex from near Clarendon, TX southwestward to near Clovis, NM. Within both of these bands, areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates have materialized in spots over the past 1-2 hours. These rates are marginally supportive of a continuing flash flood threat especially in spots across the discussion area where FFGs are in the 1.5-2.5 inch/hr range. Sustained convergence on the nose of a strong low-level jet over the Texas South Plains will help to maintain this MCS as it moves eastward through western and eventually central Oklahoma through 12Z. This convergence along with 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE will likely help the MCS persist during the timeframe as well. The risk of FFG exceedence will likely not be widespread, but should be greatest along northeastern and southwestern flanks of the complex where training/repeating convective potential can be maximized.=20 Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5-Wf5hlBY3k5K9UIScBATm1Wtkus5Im9u9SOLubZLVdW3qliY9Kkivg41S0WjWvDCain= P_r5f_liK1jQQFkTec3fDRc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36899917 36819755 36219649 35279656 34459866=20 34160181 34160289 34960288 35100209 35450125=20 36030077 36540046=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .