Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 19 2023 02:59:00

AWUS01 KWNH 190258
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-190557-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0312
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 PM EDT Thu May 18 2023

Areas affected...central Alabama into southwestern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190257Z - 190557Z

Summary...A nearly stationary band of thunderstorms was producing
heavy rainfall from near Montgomery, AL to near Albany, GA.  2-3
inch/hr rain rates could cause flash flooding over the next 3
hours or so.

Discussion...Convergence along a fairly strong surface boundary
(generally extending from near BHM to near BIJ) has resulted on
focused convective development along that same axis over the past
hour or so.  The warm side of the boundary featured 1.6 inch PW
values and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE that was continuing to support
deep convection despite the time of day.  Meanwhile, flow aloft
was weak/negligible, allowing for weak/erratic storm motions
driven by local outflows and propagation.  The slow movement of
the storms and efficient rainfall production was resulting in a
few areas of 2-3 inch/hr rainfall rates that were approaching (and
locally exceeding) 1.5-3 inch/hr FFG thresholds across the region.
 These factors should result in a flash flood threat in the near
term that should remain focused fairly closely to the
aforementioned surface boundary.

CAMs suggest that over the next 2-4 hours, convection should
gradually wane.  Continued convective overturning and boundary
layer cooling should lessen the degree of favorable instability
through the night time hours.  Until storms dissipate, localized
flash flooding should remain possible, with the threat persisting
perhaps through 0530Z or so.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!50_ujCe3FgTyGiIE90eRAqCP4_SxgmfwCW0MFOGRY3SE3-MaGfeq4oi9TQigB69HSO2A=
1aF8NUo90ptWp6cwuJXpjqs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33438676 33248614 32668521 32208383 31618335=20
            31098365 31168500 31618672 32648730=20

=3D =3D =3D
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