Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0819
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 19 2023 02:53:14

ACUS11 KWNS 190253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190252=20
TXZ000-190345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0819
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

Areas affected...the Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 190252Z - 190345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storm evolution towards linear/mixed mode continues.
Increase in low-level shear may support a brief tornado. The hail
threat has diminished, with trends towards upscale growth
continuing.

DISCUSSION...An increase in low-level shear has been noted with the
increase in the low-level jet across southwestern Texas into the
Texas Panhandle. Observed winds from KAMA and KLBB show this
increase with winds within the first 1-2 km increasing to 30-40 kts.
The hodograph from KAMA shows an increase in curvature with 0-1 km
SRH around 200 m2/s2. This is further supported by increase in
low-level rotation noted on ongoing storms near Amarillo. The
Canyon,Texas mesonet site recently observed a severe gust to 58 mph.

Storm mode has become a mix of semi-discrete cells and a line of
thunderstorms further west moving across Amarillo. It is likely that
the discrete supercell to the northeast of Amarillo will eventually
be overtaken by the line as it advances eastward. A brief tornado
with any mesocyclone ingested into the line could not be ruled out,
given the modest increase in low level flow, along with isolated
severe gusts.

...Thornton/Smith.. 05/19/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6LRsPyNP1wN-xGXtp83iThdmvRtmQQY_fjP3Ors3vK2OaC4gB4-_bCeLB7CTZ1xytSS8VtITQ=
xbbWPU3i2lm90nsLoU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36110181 36130158 35900111 35530092 35270107 34970129
            34730172 34690219 34790241 35160248 35710217 36110181=20


=3D =3D =3D
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