Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0818
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 18 2023 23:31:12

ACUS11 KWNS 182331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182330=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-190130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0818
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

Areas affected...western Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 182330Z - 190130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail threat will continue over the next
couple of hours. Trends will continued to be monitored for a
potential watch.

DISCUSSION...Within the Texas Panhandle, deep layer shear around
25-30 kts and MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Within this regime, more
organized supercells have been ongoing across Potter and Dallam
counties in Texas over the last hour. These cells will continue to
pose a severe hail threat (with isolated instances of hail up to
1.25-2 inches) over the next couple of hours before tendency for
upscale growth leads to more mixed mode/clustering. This will also
coincide with increasing CIN and loss of daytime heating. A damaging
wind threat may linger into the evening, as the low level jet
increases to around 30-40 kts across southwestern Texas into the
Texas Panhandle. However, the increasingly stable low-level
thermodynamic profile and modest lapse rates may limit this threat.
Trends will continued to be monitored for a potential watch.

...Thornton/Smith.. 05/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_Qso5sgARyjqF7EVUaTrr5XITQjk5LwFIZGrckeZ3Jgy8vKWMnKZxDziZTNeNbMlUmzrVHAHG=
NaSxWf839OA9ujkjbI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...

LAT...LON   36210285 36460254 36500206 36420144 35950132 35500133
            35260143 35110163 35030193 35050221 35160247 35510279
            36210285=20


=3D =3D =3D
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