Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0815
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 18 2023 19:53:10

ACUS11 KWNS 181953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181952=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-182215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0815
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

Areas affected...parts of northeastern New Mexico...adjacent
southeastern Colorado...into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 181952Z - 182215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development may gradually
consolidate into a growing cluster of storms while spreading into
the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity through 5-7 PM CDT.  The
potential for severe weather appears relatively low in the near
term, but could increase later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Beneath weak mid-level troughing crossing the Rockies,
orographic forcing for ascent is contributing to a gradual increase
in thunderstorm activity near the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
along the Raton Mesa to the east.  This appears to be occurring in
the presence of modest deep-layer shear (largely due to veering of
winds with height), but deep-layer mean ambient flow is weak (on the
order of 15 kt) and south-southwesterly, which will support only a
slow progression into the adjacent plains.

As activity advects eastward, it does appear that southeasterly
low-level inflow will gradually emanate from an increasingly moist
and potentially unstable boundary-layer.  This is expected to
support further upscale growth and intensification through the
remainder of the afternoon.  Gradually, stronger convection may
begin to focus along an increasingly better-defined zone of stronger
differential surface heating southwest through south of Dalhart and
Amarillo.

Deep-layer shear may be marginally supportive of a supercell
structure or two.  Perhaps more substantively, various model output
have been suggestive that a modest mesocale convective vortex could
evolve in association with the persistent growing cluster of storms.
  If/when this occurs, strengthening rear inflow and downdrafts may
be accompanied by increasing risk for strong surface gusts, but it
is possible that this might not be until well after sunset.

...Kerr/Grams.. 05/18/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6GsgCoVcvD1_ppx-SIoSsJdtvJmAkF7ab5IAhnIJ2KvTUa2F3FatK98jaiUSqRWutWvmeEPSE=
jxQJWdPPuDXhLMulZg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36350443 36980318 36890167 35810109 34930214 34410314
            34250416 34900516 35500490 36350443=20


=3D =3D =3D
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