Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 18 2023 07:28:55

ACUS03 KWNS 180728
SWODY3
SPC AC 180727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD INTO GEORGIA...

....SUMMARY...
Local/limited severe risk is evident for Saturday, primarily across
the central Gulf Coast states and Georgia.

....Portions of eastern Texas to Georgia...
A cold front is forecast to continue advancing southward across the
south-central and southeastern U.S. Saturday, as an upper trough
continues progressing across the eastern half of the country.

Showers and thunderstorms, and associated cloud cover, are forecast
across portions of the risk area early in the period, near and ahead
of the front.  As a result, rather weak mid-level lapse rates and
tempered heating in many areas should temper afternoon
destabilization.  Still, a diurnal maximization of storm
coverage/intensity is expected, as the front advances across the
Gulf Coast states and Southeast.

Moderate west-northwesterly flow aloft across the area suggests
potential for band of storms to organize, and shift
east-southeastward with time, accompanied by local risk for damaging
winds.  At this time, perceived lack of more robust CAPE suggests
limited risk, but potential will need to be reevaluated in future
outlook updates as it pertains to the possibility of a more unstable
afternoon warm sector.

Farther west, across portions of southern Texas and into southern
New Mexico, storms are expected to develop during the afternoon as
daytime heating of the post-frontal airmass results in modest CAPE
atop a deep surface-based mixed layer.  While rather weak flow aloft
suggests a lack of storm organization overall, a couple of stronger
storms could produce gusty winds, aided by sub-cloud evaporative
effects.  At this time however, threat does not appear great enough
to warrant MRGL risk.

...Goss.. 05/18/2023

$$

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