Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 18 2023 06:02:04 ACUS02 KWNS 180602 SWODY2 SPC AC 180600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ....SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms are expected Friday from parts of the southern Plains eastward across Arkansas to the Tennessee Valley vicinity. ....Southern Plains east-northeastward to the Tennessee Valley... As a north-central U.S. mid-level trough shifts southeastward Friday, a cold front stretching from the Great Lakes region to the southern Plains early in the period will advance steadily southeastward. Ahead of the front over the south-central U.S., a high theta-e warm-sector airmass will remain in place. While warm-advection-induced storms may be ongoing across the Oklahoma/Arkansas early in the period, areas near and south of the convection will heat steadily through the afternoon, resulting in moderate destabilization ahead of the boundary. As a result, storms are forecast to develop near the front by mid-afternoon. While not excessive, moderate mid-level westerly flow atop the warm sector will contribute to shear sufficient for organized updrafts, likely resulting in mixed-mode convection featuring both rotating storms, and clusters/bands of strong/locally severe convection. While low-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in general, which will limit tornado potential, hail and damaging winds are expected with stronger storms/clusters. This risk will spread eastward toward the mid-Mississippi Valley, and southeastward across Texas, into the evening, with severe risk gradually tapering into the late evening and overnight hours. ...Goss.. 05/18/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .