Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 18 2023 00:22:04

ACUS01 KWNS 180021
SWODY1
SPC AC 180020

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may persist over parts of the Plains for a
few hours, with isolated hail possible.

....Parts of central SD and NE into the TX Panhandle...
A cold front will continue to push into eastern SD and central NE,
where scattered storms persist this evening. Marginally severe hail
cannot be ruled out with the stronger storms through the evening,
but the loss of heating and generally minimal large-scale support
will lead to a weakening trend. Weak southerly winds around 20 kt
over western KS may aid isolated storm longevity, with localized
hail. For more information regarding the short-term severe threat
from NE into KS, see MCD 811.

....Southeast...
With the loss of heating, clusters of storms from southern MS into
southern SC are expected to wane. Weak winds aloft further suggest
little organization potential, as outflow stabilizes the air mass.
Pockets of stronger instability and aforementioned outflow
boundaries could yield brief upticks in convection, with locally
gusty and non-severe winds most likely.

...Jewell.. 05/18/2023

$$

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