Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0810
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 17 2023 19:28:33

ACUS11 KWNS 171928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171927=20
ALZ000-172130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0810
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023

Areas affected...southern AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171927Z - 172130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms capable of
45-60 mph gusts will potentially yield pockets of wind damage.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar mosaic imagery shows a
developing cluster of thunderstorms moving slowly east-southeast
over southwest AL.  Surface observations ahead of the activity
indicate temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s with dewpoints
in the upper 60s.  Weak westerly tropospheric flow according to KMOB
VAD data will favor slow, eastward-moving thunderstorms.  Objective
analysis shows 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and forecast soundings show a
very moist profile.  Water-loaded downdrafts will likely be the
primary hazard with the stronger cores.  Where localized 45-60 mph
gusts occur over the next couple of hours (through 2130 UTC/430pm
CDT), pockets of wind damage are probable.

...Smith/Grams.. 05/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7RmXAmmNFYnpi6EvN7ud3zcCwp4o492vFDGIQZPzhZM51b89r1tX3sR7DMQeTvLejd_PxpOYZ=
EsEG6NNkZ9LSwa0S08$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...

LAT...LON   31268821 31668790 31998755 31998699 31668638 31358643
            31128670 31058732 31268821=20


=3D =3D =3D
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