Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0809
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 17 2023 18:29:33

ACUS11 KWNS 171829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171829=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-172030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0809
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171829Z - 172030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm clusters will pose a severe hail
and wind threat as they move east into parts of the southern High
Plains. This threat is expected to remain sufficiently localized to
preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have initiated within the
higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains over the past 60-90
minutes. Radar trends have revealed most of this activity to be
fairly short-lived, but a few more intense updraft pulses have been
noted. The background westerly flow regime will help advect this
activity off the higher terrain into the High Plains through the
afternoon. Easterly flow at the surface is not only supporting
marginal deep-layer shear, but is also sustaining dewpoints in the
low 50s across the OK/TX Panhandles amid weak moisture advection.
This is fostering downstream destabilization, which is supported by
recent trends in visible imagery and RAP analyses. Consequently,
there is some potential for thunderstorms to intensify as they
migrate east. Thunderstorm clustering is already noted along the
CO/NM border, and latest hi-res guidance supports the idea of one or
more clusters meandering east through the late afternoon hours
(though it remains unclear how quickly such clusters will become
outflow dominant). An initial severe hail threat should transition
to a damaging/severe wind threat as this occurs, but the coverage of
the threat remains fairly uncertain.

...Moore/Grams.. 05/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7vCrWgh1LGyIUltg32fMjn2tgFyWOz0EM4_9CHpjDkY3JHkzvsyjR5LjrXVL-sf3-XKUfnUha=
f1CcRGc_C-Z-MmML9Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37190506 37460487 37670470 37810422 37860215 37720171
            36970146 36160161 35430215 35170275 35700516 36000550
            36730529 37190506=20


=3D =3D =3D
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