Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0808
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 17 2023 17:52:33

ACUS11 KWNS 171752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171752=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-171945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0808
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171752Z - 171945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will pose a sporadic
severe wind/hail threat through the afternoon hours. Strong/severe
thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sufficiently isolated to
preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 60 minutes, GOES visible imagery has show
signs of diurnal destabilization across the central High Plains in
the form of deepening/expanding cumulus fields. In addition to this,
KCYS and KUDX imagery has shown more robust convection initiating
along residual outflow boundaries and along a diffuse surface
trough. RAP mesoanalyses also show this destabilizing trend,
especially across western NE into far southwest SD downstream of the
developing convection where dewpoints are falling through the mid
50s and cumulus buildup is noted. The expectation is for these
storms to continue to mature/intensify as buoyancy improves further.
Deep-layer flow over the region remains fairly modest (20-25 knot
flow in the 6 to 8 km layer), but may be adequate for some storm
organization with an attendant severe hail threat. Given steep
low-level lapse rates (approaching 9 C/km), strong to severe
downburst winds are possible. A robust wind threat may emerge if
adequate clustering/cold pool consolidation can occur along the
surface trough, but confidence in this scenario remains limited and
precludes the need for watch issuance.

...Moore/Grams.. 05/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6P2A9mzQkI0IBMvAN4K88Yp0_6TiRkf6u_mr9VQ7L2GgckvoJM3djylUUpOMzKjjZHqQjoUxr=
oqHEpca8rSG8dZ8EL0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40660462 41120490 42090425 43420384 44040346 44090300
            43790224 43300011 42520012 41650026 40720078 40330162
            40140238 40070306 40000356 40160400 40660462=20


=3D =3D =3D
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