Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 17 2023 17:31:22

AWUS01 KWNH 171731
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-172300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0307
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 PM EDT Wed May 17 2023

Areas affected...East Central AZ...West Central NM...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171730Z - 172300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving monsoonal thunderstorms pose localized rates
up to 1.5"/hr and totals up to 2",

DISCUSSION...12z TWC sounding along with NAEFS/ECENS ensemble
anomaly analysis denote near record (99th percentile) available
moisture across southeast AZ/western New Mexico given axis of .75
to 1" total Pwats (dependent on elevation).  Tds of upper 40s in
the terrain and near 60 at SAD depict this well.  nearly full-sun
has allowed for increasingly unstable environment with some more
dense clouds over the San Francisco Plateau in Navajo/Apache
counties likely aiding in differential heating boundary may aid/
focus low level flow regime toward areas of higher moisture along
the south and southeast edge of the 500-300mb trof, with proximity
to weak outflow channel across the Four Corners denoted in the WV
as curved anticyclonic cirrus bands.=20=20

With further heating, low level wind response out of the southeast
AZ Valley though the 850-700mb layer into the eastern Mogollon
Rim, Gila Mtns, and into the Gallina/Gallo and Black Ranges of NM
will support moisture pooling with that maximized heating.  As
such, moisture flux convergence should enhance rainfall efficiency
likely as the initial cells coming off the highest peaks, induce
outflow for newer stronger updrafts in the 19-20z period.  A feed
back to the cyclonic twist noted in S Apache county, while low
level winds will increase, steering winds will remain weak at
5-10kts and allow for increased duration of the efficient
updrafts.  Hourly Rates up to 1.25, maybe 1.5" may allow for
localized 2" totals given this slow movement, but high rates over
the high desert soils is likely to be quicker for higher run-off.=20
A limiting factor may be the width of the updraft/downdraft cores
being narrower and limited in areal space...resulting in a smaller
rainfall footprint, but still there is sufficient potential to
induce isolated instances of flash flooding through the late
afternoon.=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8j-QY09remt1l7m6EMjPdtXMupSTiWmxMGGqHmsrW-UrWd7l26yaCznqfjj33b7B4rb0=
6uiq604I1-1IrD1D6W8OeAE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35470821 34940734 34010720 33110739 32740816=20
            32890924 33281027 33931116 34611113 34741045=20
            34760922=20

=3D =3D =3D
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