Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 17 2023 12:04:15

ACUS01 KWNS 171204
SWODY1
SPC AC 171202

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND HIGH PLAINS....

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe winds and hail will be possible
in parts of the Southeast this afternoon. Storms with isolated large
hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the
High Plains late this afternoon into early this evening.

....Southeast...
A broad area of moist/unstable air is present today from parts of
LA/MS into GA/SC.  Early morning visible satellite imagery suggests
considerable heating will occur today across this region, with
dewpoints in the mid 60s contributing to afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg.  Winds aloft are relatively weak and mid-level lapse
rates are not very steep.  However, weak mid-level height falls in
advance of an approaching shortwave trough over MO will overspread
the region, supporting scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms.  Most CAM solutions suggest some clustering of storms
through the afternoon, capable of locally strong wind gusts.

....High Plains...
Northwest flow aloft is forecast for today across the High Plains
region, with weak southerly low-level winds maintaining dewpoints in
the upper 40s and 50s.  This will result in a corridor of afternoon
MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, along with relatively steep low-mid level
lapse rates.  Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are
expected to form over the mountains/foothills and spread eastward
into the plains during the afternoon.  As this activity overspreads
the instability axis, a few intense storms may form.  Locally
damaging winds will be the main threat, although sufficient
deep-layer shear will be present for a low probability of a
supercell or two containing hail.

...Hart/Gleason.. 05/17/2023

$$

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