Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 17 2023 06:00:13

ACUS01 KWNS 170600
SWODY1
SPC AC 170558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe winds and hail will be possible
in parts of the Southeast this afternoon. Storms with isolated large
hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible in parts of the
High Plains late this afternoon into early this evening.

....Southeast...
Westerly flow at mid-levels will remain relatively weak today across
the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward
across the region with a moist airmass located to the south of the
front. Surface heating across this moist airmass will likely
contribute the development of an east-to-west axis of moderate
instability across the central Gulf Coast states by afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front.
Although mid-level flow will be relatively weak, forecast soundings
suggest that low-level lapse rates will become steep during the
early to mid afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop in areas where
instability is locally maximized near and after peak heating could
be associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail.

....High Plains...
An upper-level trough will move through the northern Plains today,
as mid-level flow remains from the northwest across much of the
central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward
across the northern Plains and a lee trough will deepen in the
central High Plains. As surface temperatures warm today, a
north-to-south instability axis is expected to develop across the
High Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorms will form in the
vicinity of the instability axis during the mid to late afternoon.
RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Thursday
have surface dewpoints mostly in the 50s F with 0-6 km shear
generally between 30 and 35 knots. Lapse rates are forecast to
become steep, especially at low-levels. This should support a
marginal threat for severe wind gusts. Although the potential for
supercells should remain isolated, rotating updrafts that develop
could contain large hail. The threat will likely persist into the
early evening with stronger convective clusters.

...Broyles/Weinman.. 05/17/2023

$$

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