Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 17 2023 01:56:05

AWUS01 KWNH 170156
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-170600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0305
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
955 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast VA...Central and
Northern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170155Z - 170600Z

SUMMARY...Locally training bands of heavy showers and
thunderstorms likely to continue for a few more hours across
portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Additional areas of flash
flooding will be likely.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar trends shows multiple bands of
locally training convection advancing across south-central VA and
into areas of far northern NC. The convection is focusing out
ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough and associated cold front
settling southeast across the Mid-Atlantic region and is
interacting with a moderately unstable airmass with MLCAPE values
of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. The airmass is rather moist too with PWs of
1.5 to 1.6 inches.

Multiple waves of low pressure are also riding northeast along the
front, and these waves are helping to provide locally stronger
low-level forcing for more focused convective development.
Effective bulk shear is rather high with values near 50 kts in
place, and this is helping to yield sustainable and robust
updrafts.

While individual convective cells are rather progressive, there
will continue to be concerns over the next few hours across
south-central to southeast VA and down into areas of northern and
potentially central NC for training bands of convection as the
activity remains well-aligned with the deeper layer west-southwest
flow aloft.

Expect rainfall rates to be as high as 1.5 to 2 inches/hour, with
some localized storm total swaths of as much as 3 to 4 inches
possible. Additional areas of flash flooding are generally likely
as a result and this will include areas in between Richmond and
Petersburg in south-central VA, and also areas from near the
Raleigh-Durham area northward up to along the VA/NC border.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_GVOaRpawfBzOa7QbrWesJhj8Pw1ujRB2bc9jJpnSpU7FxksQqpEhPTO9GhR0mUslhWU=
c8N9_hxlcXEq5ox1lwt6ly4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37597795 37507671 36827594 36057631 35737708=20
            35207829 34867964 34888045 35278101 35678076=20
            36267980 36847926 37347866=20

=3D =3D =3D
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