Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0806
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 17 2023 00:36:44

ACUS11 KWNS 170036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170035=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-170200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0806
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023

Areas affected...South-central Virginia and north-central North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226...

Valid 170035Z - 170200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe-wind risk is increasing and likely peaking
during the next couple hours across south-central VA into
north-central NC this evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KFCX shows an increasingly
organized line segment with embedded bowing structures and
rear-inflow jets tracking eastward at around 45-50 kt. VWP data
shows 40-50 kt of unidirectional 0-6 km shear oriented perpendicular
to the leading-edge gust front, which will support the maintenance
of this line with eastward extent given a moist/unstable
pre-convective airmass. Additional bowing segments trailing
southwestward of the line (moving at similar speeds toward the east)
will also pose a severe-wind risk with eastward extent. Current
indications are that this activity will maintain intensity during
the next couple hours, as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens
along/ahead of the line. The primary concern will be severe gusts up
to 70 mph, though an embedded mesovortex tornado or two is also
possible as low-level hodographs expand in size/clockwise curvature
amid line-normal low/deep-layer shear.

...Weinman.. 05/17/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8Ea9VN7_qhSYzOQU_KT8gK0hDD3TaKpbWWO3b7bE2he2ckp22tCrjKo-ePFPldj0jq_8DBYnY=
-vaTRpp7yElylmCqWU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   36577998 36857955 37137945 37267920 37247886 37147814
            37007780 36587767 36287784 36027809 35877854 35837959
            35928041 36068061 36268049 36577998=20


=3D =3D =3D
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