Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0805
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 16 2023 23:06:12

ACUS11 KWNS 162306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162305=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-170100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0805
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southwest/south-central Virginia and
west-central North Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226...

Valid 162305Z - 170100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat may increase over parts of
southwest/south-central Virginia into west-central North Carolina
during the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows a cluster of organized
storms tracking east-southeastward along/south of a
west-southwest/east-northeast-oriented warm front draped through
western VA. Given around 40 kt of unidirectional 0-6 km shear
oriented parallel to the boundary and oblique to the convective line
(per VWP data), a linear mode and damaging-wind risk should persist
with east-southeastward extent. Farther east into west-central NC
and southwest/south-central VA, weaker large-scale ascent away from
the synoptic boundary is supporting a discrete/semi-discrete mode,
and 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear amid a warm/moist boundary-layer is
yielding transient supercell structures capable of large hail and
locally damaging winds.=20

During the next few hours, a strengthening southwesterly low-level
jet should overspread the area, with a corresponding increase in
hodograph size/curvature. While nocturnal boundary-layer stability
will be increasing during this time, the increasingly favorable wind
profile and moist boundary layer could compensate for this --
supporting a slight uptick in storm intensity. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main concerns given the expected mode,
though a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out with the more
organized storms given increasing boundary-layer streamwise
vorticity.

...Weinman.. 05/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6I5rr-0A2IYmtO_lf3SZE5_useKQbS-2NJf63w4LZKoHk-EAmmuF_HgKC5Owo83npvU4KsktU=
fFqp7ky3m06StLwb7M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   37088000 37037934 36867879 36467846 36067854 35727878
            35437955 35328027 35298067 35308125 35408155 35678173
            36098185 36438185 36758164 36918143 37038106 37088058
            37088000=20


=3D =3D =3D
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