Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0802
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 16 2023 18:34:39

ACUS11 KWNS 161834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161834=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0802
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023

Areas affected...Southwest VA...Northwest NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161834Z - 162030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity may increase this
afternoon across southwest VA and northwest NC, and trends are being
monitored for potential watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The air mass across southwest VA and northwest NC
continues to destabilize amid temperatures warming into the upper
70s amid dewpoints in the mid 60s. Multicellular thunderstorm
activity upstream across far southwest VA has modestly strengthened
over the past hour, likely a result of increasing buoyancy and
continued ascent along the southern/eastern periphery of the
convectively augmented shortwave moving through the middle OH
Valley. Dewpoints are expected to remain in the mid 60s, despite
modest downsloping and boundary-layer mixing. As such, the airmass
will likely remain uncapped, with the remaining buoyancy and modest
ascent contributing to increasing thunderstorm coverage.=20

Even with some expectation for increasing thunderstorm coverage,
convective evolution is uncertain, and the primary severe threat may
remain associated with the main convective line farther west.
Consequently, when a watch will be needed is also somewhat
uncertain. Convective trends will be monitored closely for earlier
development and sufficient severe thunderstorms coverage to merit a
watch.

...Mosier/Leitman.. 05/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5FvJM2JPT7FW1N99rsaHpVwhjINNYBpBKCazeu1RuSiXO1MEo8KHWRmeCHvJ28I9zTILxuPrO=
r5LEFZ4xaVFB-puNFA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   35637992 35708044 35788088 35868117 36008155 36138171
            36458174 36858153 37188116 37378055 37357992 37237927
            36947861 36647830 36027834 35677878 35637992=20


=3D =3D =3D
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