Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue May 16 2023 12:28:35 ACUS01 KWNS 161228 SWODY1 SPC AC 161227 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...WESTERN VIRGINIA...AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with wind damage, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes are expected to develop across parts of the southern and central Appalachians this afternoon into early evening. ....KY/TN into VA/NC... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving across IA/western MO. This feature is forecast to accelerate eastward and move into parts of KY/TN by late afternoon. Relatively strong daytime heating will occur ahead of the trough, resulting in a corridor of moderate CAPE and relatively steep low-level lapse rates from central KY/middle TN eastward into western VA/NC. Winds aloft will be strengthening through the day across the CAPE axis, leading to a favorable environment for severe storms. Present indications are that thunderstorms will develop along the surface boundary across western/central KY by early afternoon. Early activity will pose a risk of hail and gusty winds, with an eventual evolution toward bowing structures. Storms should move quickly across the spine of the Appalachians just after peak heating, with most model solutions suggesting sufficient low-level moisture/CAPE to maintain intensity over the mountains and into western VA/NC. If/when organized bowing structures develop, the potential will exist for occasional brief spin-ups along the leading gust front. Isolated strong to severe storms may also form ahead of the bowing line into parts of south-central VA and central NC this afternoon, with a risk of damaging wind or perhaps hail. Strengthening westerly flow aloft and ample moisture/CAPE will also be present farther south, from northern MS into parts of AL/GA. Given the consensus of recent CAM solutions showing scattered afternoon thunderstorms, have expanded the MRGL risk to cover this region. ....High Plains... A shortwave trough currently over SD will track southward today into the high plains of eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS. Strong heating over this region, coupled with dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s, will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Widely scattered diurnal thunderstorms are expected, with sufficient deep-layer shear for high-based supercell structures capable of gusty winds and hail. ...Hart/Gleason.. 05/16/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .