Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue May 16 2023 07:13:34 ACUS03 KWNS 160713 SWODY3 SPC AC 160712 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms may occur over portions of the southern Plains region Thursday. ....Synopsis... While upper ridging prevails over the West, an upper low is forecast to progress southeastward out of the Canadian Prairie, and across the north-central U.S. Thursday, reaching the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity Friday morning. As this occurs, a cold front -- trailing southwestward from a western Ontario surface low -- will advance across the Upper Midwest and Plains states through the period. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will prevail across much of the eastern half of the country, and also will expand across the West as cool Canadian air spreads southward. ....Portions of Oklahoma and the Panhandles, southwestward to the Texas Big Bend area... While tropical air -- suppressed southward by a prior frontal intrusion -- will likely remain confined to the Gulf Coast region, more modest moisture return will occur within a southern Plains warm sector, south of a cold front advancing from the north, and east of a West Texas trough. With daytime heating supporting ample afternoon destabilization, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop -- particularly in the vicinity of the two aforementioned boundaries. With a belt of enhanced (30 to 35 kt) west-northwesterly mid-level flow expected to reside over Oklahoma and the Panhandles during the afternoon, and slightly weaker westerlies to the southwest into West Texas, a few stronger storms will likely organize during the late afternoon and early evening. With a rather deep mixed layer, a few of the stronger storms may produce evaporatively enhanced downdrafts -- locally capable of exceeding severe levels. During the evening, a 40 to 50 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to develop into Oklahoma, which should allow an increase in convective coverage -- possibly resulting in MCS development across the Oklahoma vicinity, where continued/local risk for damaging wind gusts may continue through the evening and possibly into the overnight hours. ...Goss.. 05/16/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .