Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue May 16 2023 05:58:33 ACUS02 KWNS 160558 SWODY2 SPC AC 160557 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ....SUMMARY... A few severe storms -- capable of producing gusty/damaging winds -- may affect the central and southern High Plains region Wednesday afternoon and evening. ....Synopsis... An upper trough -- extending southward from an eastern Canada cyclone -- is forecast to sweep eastward across the Northeast Wednesday, as a second Canadian low -- over the Prairie Provinces -- advances slowly southward toward the north-central U.S. through the period. Meanwhile, ridging -- aligned north-south in the vicinity of the West Coast -- is forecast to persist. At the surface, a cold front associated with the Canadian Prairie upper low is forecast to shift southward across the Northern Plains and Montana, while south of the front a lee trough remains across the central and southern High Plains. In the East, high pressure will prevail, while a baroclinic zone at the southern fringe of the cool continental airmass lingers across the Gulf Coast states and Georgia through the period. ....Central and southern High Plains vicinity... As a band of modest low-level moisture spreads slowly northward ahead of a High Plains lee trough, daytime heating will contribute to development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. This will likely support development of isolated storms in the vicinity of the trough. This CAPE will reside at the top of an inverted V-type thermal/moisture profile, as the mixed layer deepens. While storms will also likely develop farther north along the southward-moving cold front, it appears that a belt of weakly enhanced mid-level northwesterly flow will shift across mainly the central portion of the High Plains. Here, with weak low-level southerlies beneath the mid-level northwesterlies, a few storms appear likely to organize, and shift southeastward toward lower elevations with time -- possibly as a cluster or two into the evening. With limited instability, severe risk should remain primarily limited to wind -- with gust potential aided by potential for sub-cloud evaporation. Threat should diminish later in the evening in tandem with gradual diurnal cooling/stabilization. ...Goss.. 05/16/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .