Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 16 2023 03:23:41

AWUS01 KWNH 160323
FFGMPD
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-160745-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0303
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1122 PM EDT Mon May 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Southeast MO into Southern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160320Z - 160745Z

SUMMARY...A small, but very intense cluster of showers and
thunderstorms moving through southeast MO will move into southern
IL over the next few hours. Rainfall rates upwards of 2
inches/hour may result in some downstream flash flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a rather long-lived
small-scale MCS advancing east through southeast MO with intense
rainfall rates that have been pulsing as high as 2+ inches/hour.
The activity is associated with a compact vort center running just
out ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough beginning to cross the
middle MS Valley.

This activity is traversing the northern edge of an instability
gradient situated along and just north of a quasi-stationary
front, with MUCAPE values downstream of the MCS over southeast MO
and far southern IL as high as 1000 to 1500 J/Kg. A wave of
surface low pressure is also located nearby on the front and is
providing a rather concentrated area of stronger low-level
convergence that is helping to drive some of the ongoing
convective organization.

There may be just a subtle nocturnal increase in southwest
low-level flow ahead of the surface low over the next few hours up
across areas of northeast AR into far southeast MO and southern IL
that could help to sustain the ongoing activity. It is likely that
this activity should gradually weaken toward 06Z and beyond, but
for at least the next few hours, it may still be capable of
producing some intense short-term rainfall rates that could reach
2+ inches/hour.

Given such high rainfall rates, a few instances of flash flooding
cannot be rule out at least for the next few hours for downstream
areas of southeast MO and southern IL that are in the path of this
strong convective cluster. Will continue to closely monitor.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5gxZWAYdOLjv9FeWfOcbDwPPguo5OKjCvL1c7b0d1B0QaDEmzi7yvDbLSjBh0pxhsq3A=
WzJMpeN6dcu86Ui_HmimJU4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37958845 37348807 36948873 36879020 37109095=20
            37559092 37909006=20

=3D =3D =3D
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