Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 16 2023 00:44:03

ACUS01 KWNS 160043
SWODY1
SPC AC 160042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorms with potential for hail and
marginally severe wind gusts will be possible for another hour or
two this evening in parts of the mid Mississippi Valley.

....Mid Mississippi Valley...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture
streaming east-southeastward from the mid Mississippi Valley to the
Carolinas. Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing on the
southern edge of this plume in the vicinity of a mesoscale surface
low in far northeast Arkansas. The storms are located near an axis
of moderate instability, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the
1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings from
southeast Missouri into western Tennessee have 0-6 km shear in the
25 to 35 knot range with 0-3 km lapse rates from 7.5 to 8.0 C/km.
This should be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat with the
stronger multicells. Hail will also be possible. The severe threat
may persist for another hour or two this evening.

...Broyles.. 05/16/2023

$$

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