Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 15 2023 20:21:01

ACUS01 KWNS 152020
SWODY1
SPC AC 152019

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS  AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN AND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

CORRECTED GRAPHIC

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms producing a few strong wind gusts
and hail will be possible today from parts of the Ozarks into the
Tennessee Valley vicinity.

....20Z Update...
Some adjustments to the categorical and probabilistic outlook lines
have been made, but mostly just to account for the slow progression
of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and associated trends
concerning destabilization.

Please refer to the 1630Z outlook discussion (appended below) and
the latest SPC mesoscale discussions for further details.

...Kerr.. 05/15/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023/

....Ozarks to TN Valley vicinity...

An upper ridge will persist over the Southeast much of today, while
a rather nondescript/weak flow regime remains in place across the
Plains. At the surface, a weak low/MCV is featured over eastern OK
late this morning. This feature will slowly migrate east/northeast
through southern MO through the period. Abundant boundary-layer
moisture (surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F) and
heating into upper 70s/low 80s F will support weak to moderate
destabilization ahead of the MCV. Deep-layer flow will remain light,
though the MCV will likely enhance low/midlevel winds modestly,
providing around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. This should
support some loosely organized, sporadically strong cells/bows.
Strong/locally damaging gusts and hail will be the main hazards with
this activity. While low-level flow will remain very weak,
vertically veering winds in the lowest 1-2 km will produce very
modestly curved hodographs with some minor SRH ahead of the MCV in
conjunction with mean mixing ratios near 15-16 g/kg. Tornado
potential is expected to remain very low, but a funnel cloud or
brief spin-up could occur this afternoon, mainly across southern MO.

Further east toward Middle TN into adjacent portions of northern
AL/extreme northwest GA, shear profile will be even more modest,
mainly relegating afternoon activity to pulse-like convection.
However, stronger instability and a more deeply mixed boundary-layer
could support potential for water-loaded downdrafts and isolated
downbursts producing locally strong gusts with any more transient
intense cells this afternoon. The strongest cells could also produce
small hail.

$$

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