Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 15 2023 12:38:28

ACUS01 KWNS 151238
SWODY1
SPC AC 151236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms associated with a few strong wind
gusts and hail will be possible today from parts of the Ozarks into
middle Tennessee.

....Mid MS/TN Valleys...
An upper ridge is positioned over the southeast states today, with
20-30 knot midlevel winds arcing from the southern Plains into the
TN/OH Valleys.  Ample low-level moisture and afternoon CAPE will be
aligned along the southern fringe of the stronger flow fields, from
southern MO into western KY and middle TN.  This zone will see
scattered diurnal thunderstorms later today.

Several days of convection have resulted in a large but weak MCV
over OK.  This feature will drift northeastward today into parts of
AR/MO and interact with the aforementioned instability axis.  This
should promote clusters of relatively slow-moving storms, with just
enough vertical shear to support loosely organized multicell or
bowing structures.  Locally gusty/damaging winds appear to be the
main threat, along with hail in the most intense cores.

...Hart/Gleason.. 05/15/2023

$$

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