Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 15 2023 08:48:27

ACUS48 KWNS 150848
SWOD48
SPC AC 150847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Severe-weather potential appears likely to remain low Day 4
(Thursday) as an upper low shifts southeastward out of the Canadian
Prairie and across the north-central U.S.  While a surface cold
front will accompany this system, and is expected to advance
southeastward across the Upper Mississippi/Mid-Missouri Valleys and
central Plains, meager moisture/instability suggests no more than
limited severe potential at this time.

For the remainder of the period, the depiction of the eastward
advance of this feature -- and the associated surface system
--becomes increasingly different amongst the models.  While some
severe potential could evolve as the front shifts southward toward a
potentially higher theta-e airmass, and eastward into the Atlantic
Coast states, severe risk would likely increase to some degree.
However, due to the model differences, timing and location of any
areas of heightened risk are unable to be ascertained at this time.

Late in the period, general model agreement suggests that an eastern
U.S. trough will become temporarily reestablished.  As it does,
surface high pressure would spread southeastward out of Canada, and
appears likely to encompass most of the central and eastern CONUS.
This would then limit severe potential through the latter stages of
the medium range.

...Goss.. 05/15/2023

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