Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 15 2023 07:29:57 ACUS03 KWNS 150729 SWODY3 SPC AC 150728 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... A few severe storms -- capable of producing gusty/damaging winds -- may affect the central and southern Plains region Wednesday afternoon and evening. ....Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to continue across the western U.S. Wednesday, though an upper low over the Canadian Prairie will drift slowly south-southeastward with time, thus suppressing the ridge a bit westward. Meanwhile, in the East, primary troughing will progress eastward, across New England and the Canadian Maritime Provinces through Thursday morning. This will allow temporary short-wave ridging aloft to shift across the Great Lakes region, in advance of the aforementioned low digging south-southeastward toward the north-central states. At the surface, a weak west-to-east front will advance southward across the Gulf Coast States and Georgia, as high pressure expands across the Great Lakes and Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front associated with the Canadian Prairie upper low will progress southward across north-central U.S. and northern Rockies, while a lee trough lingers farther south, across the central and southern High Plains through the period. ....Central and southern High Plains... As modest boundary-layer moisture attempts to spread northward into the High Plains region on the back side of surface high pressure, daytime heating will result in a modestly unstable airmass by late afternoon. As a result, isolated storm development is expected over the front range/in the vicinity of the lee trough. With a deep, surface-based mixed layer evolving through the afternoon, potential for evaporatively enhanced downdrafts -- a few reaching severe levels -- appear possible with a couple of the strongest storms. By late afternoon and into early evening, the roughly 20 to 25 kt northwesterly mid-level flow across the High Plains atop weak low-level southeasterlies could allow some upscale growth of storms. This convection would then progress southeastward toward lower elevations, accompanied by some risk for wind before storms weaken later in the evening. ...Goss.. 05/15/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .