Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 15 2023 05:56:56

ACUS01 KWNS 150556
SWODY1
SPC AC 150555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms associated with a few strong wind
gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of the Ozarks and
Mid Mississippi Valley.

....Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A large area of high pressure will remain across the Southeast
today, as mid-level flow remains from the northwest from the mid
Mississippi Valley southeastward into the Carolinas. At the surface,
an east-to-west quasi-stationary front will be located from southern
Missouri into western Kentucky. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
to near 70 F to the south of this front will contribute to a pocket
of moderate instability by afternoon. 0-6 km shear around 30 knots
combined with 0-3 km lapse rates around 7.5 C/km, evident on
forecast soundings, should be sufficient for marginally severe wind
gusts during the mid to late afternoon. Hail will also be possible
near the stronger updrafts.

...Broyles/Weinman.. 05/15/2023

$$

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