Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 15 2023 05:41:26 ACUS02 KWNS 150541 SWODY2 SPC AC 150539 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH AND INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA/NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ....SUMMARY... A few strong/locally severe storms my affect the Mid South/southern Appalachians region Tuesday. ....Synopsis... While large-scale ridging remains over the western U.S. Tuesday, a southward expansion of troughing/cyclonic flow is expected over the East. This will occur as a series of short-wave troughs dig southeastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest/Ohio Valley, within northwesterly cyclonic flow on the southwestern periphery of an eastern Canada upper cyclone. At the surface, a weak frontal wave is expected to move eastward across Kentucky during the day, along a remnant baroclinic zone, and south of the next/reinforcing front dropping southward across the Great Lakes/Midwest. Meanwhile, general high pressure will prevail across the central and western U.S. through the period. ....Central KY/northern Middle TN to southwestern VA/northwestern NC... Near and south of a lingering baroclinic zone, and ahead of a possible/weak frontal wave crossing western Kentucky early in the period, daytime warm-sector heating/destabilization is expected to occur, pushing mixed-layer CAPE into the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. By midday, initial convection should be developing over west-central Kentucky, and should expand/intensify eastward as the airmass destabilizes. Aided by 35 to 50 kt westerly flow forecast across the Mid South region, storms should organize -- and possibly grow upscale into loosely organized clusters. As such, along with some hail risk, damaging winds would seem likely to become an increasing threat as storms progress eastward/east-southeastward across central and eastern Kentucky and northeastern Tennessee. The storms should reach southwestern Virginia and western North Carolina by early evening, gradually weakening diurnally thereafter. Farther south, weaker flow is forecast to limit severe risk. Still, a few instances of wind/hail near or slightly exceeding severe levels will be possible into parts of northern Alabama/northern Georgia and possibly western South Carolina during the afternoon and early evening hours. ...Goss.. 05/15/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .