Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 15 2023 01:03:25

ACUS01 KWNS 150103
SWODY1
SPC AC 150102

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible this evening across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley.

....Mid Mississippi Valley...
An areas of high pressure is located across the Southeast, with
west-northwesterly mid-level flow over much of the mid Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys. Water vapor imagery shows a broad area of
mid-level moisture located from the Great Plains eastward into the
mid Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. At the surface, the northern
edge of a moist airmass is present across north-central Missouri and
south-central Illinois, where the RAP is showing moderate
instability. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the
mid Mississippi Valley with the strongest storms located along a
northwest-to-southeast gradient of instability from south-central
Illinois into western Kentucky. The WSR-88D VWP at Paducah has 0-6
km shear of 30 to 35 knots, owing mostly to speed shear in the
mid-levels. This, combined 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km will
support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger multicells
for a few more hours this evening...see MCD 796. Hail could also
occur associated with the stronger updrafts. A marginal wind-damage
and hail threat will also likely exist further west into
north-central Missouri along a corridor of instability just to the
north of the surface low.

...Broyles.. 05/15/2023

$$

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