Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 15 2023 00:59:49

AWUS01 KWNH 150059
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-150400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0298
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
859 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023

Areas affected...eastern Kansas, western Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150058Z - 150400Z

Summary...Current indications are that the ongoing flash flood
threat should remain relatively isolated, but continue through
04-05Z or so.

Discussion...Slow-moving convection continues across the
discussion area.  Rain rates of 1-2.5 inches/hr continue to be
estimated per MRMS as a number of cell mergers are ongoing
particularly near the I-70 corridor between Kansas City and
Columbia.  Additional, isolated cells are also noted across
eastern Kansas with spotty, but high rain rates as well.  These
storms continue to benefit from a moderately unstable (1000-1500
J/kg) and moist (1.7+ inch PW) environment, with weak vertical
shear also supporting efficient rain rates.

Models indicate that convection could linger perhaps through
04-05Z despite a loss of surface heating.  This persistence is
most likely where the unstable airmass across the discussion area
has not been affected by convectively induced cold pools=20
especially from Kansas City and the KS/MO border westward.  Along
I-70, a couple of outflow boundaries are colliding, causing an
uptick in convective coverage that should continue for another 1-2
hours before broader low-level destabilization weakens updrafts
and reduces the overall thunderstorm risk.  Over time, the ongoing
flash flood threats should wane with the loss of surface heating
and continued convective overturning.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7Ri211SrI7-ZzLxu-YZHD9cpXKpNzNuCe6RTPMHbF3aCpcNn6X2WQ1EIHUx7vTL3o1kd=
0R4luXUuyC5aZyWAPfAgWJw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40209375 39889226 38989192 38519227 38039346=20
            37139513 37359585 38709601 39409624 39909522=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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