Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0796
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 15 2023 00:56:53

ACUS11 KWNS 150056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150056=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-150300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0796
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

Areas affected...South-central Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224...

Valid 150056Z - 150300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and severe gusts continues across
the eastern portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224 this evening.

DISCUSSION...Several supercell clusters are tracking southeastward
across the eastern portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224 in
south-central Illinois this evening. These storms are maintaining
residence time in the zone of moderate surface-based instability
(1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and 30 kts of 0-6 km shear (per regional
VWP). Given the somewhat separated nature of these storms through
this corridor, large hail up to 1.5 inches remains possible, along
with locally damaging gusts with the more upscale-grown clusters
(aided by water-loading processes). While some of this activity
could extend southeastward into parts of western Kentucky, current
thinking is that the overall severe risk will become increasingly
isolated during the next couple of hours, and a downstream watch is
not expected at this time.

...Weinman.. 05/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_F1clClK3sM4ZFV5X7jmfMwjX4H5nGrrJ0gLcrpz7PGlGbocX1kKjmJKP3mC4aLn1QjSLhcde=
8m1L0S7gKL2-fh76dE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37598843 38378902 38808950 39008987 39268983 39478953
            39508922 39368882 38918826 38568793 38128778 37698784
            37548811 37598843=20


=3D =3D =3D
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