Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 14 2023 19:18:11 AWUS01 KWNH 141918 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-150100- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0296 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 317 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023 Areas affected...portions of southeastern/eastern TX into southeastern OK Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 141910Z - 150100Z SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be likely for portions of southeastern/eastern TX through the late afternoon and possibly southeastern OK early this evening. Rainfall rates will have the potential to reach 2-3 in/hr, possibly higher. Coverage of flash flooding may remain localized to locations which recently received high rainfall totals. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 1830Z showed a line of convection arcing from near CRS to LFK to GLS, associated with a long-lived MCV over the Grimes/Madison County border. Low level confluence/convergence along the outflow has been responsible for convective development with a general north and east progression to the line across east-central TX but periods of training from S to N or SSE to NNW where alignment with the deeper-layer mean wind occurred. Farther south there has been little movement to the axis stretching across Galveston Island but convective intensity has pulsed down and recently back up again. A minimum in instability was present near the MCV center due to cloud cover and rain cooled air with 1000 to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE estimated east of the outflow and just west of Galveston Bay where there has been some airmass recovery. The MCV has been tracking north near 20 kt and this motion is expected to continue over the next 3-6 hours. Expectations are for periods of training to continue, especially over southeastern TX in the near term where there has been little movement to the convergence axis. Additional flare ups of convection will also remain possible over this region until the MCV tracks farther north which should weaken the degree of confluence over southeastern TX. Alignment of echoes from S to N or SSE to NNW across portions of eastern TX will have the potential to train and produce very high rainfall rates with 1 to 1.5 inches in 30 minutes, perhaps locally higher. Beyond 00Z, there is some local concern that as heavy rain begins to move into southeastern OK, that there could be some overlap with locations that picked up heavy rain over the past 72 hours, but convective intensity and organization by that point in time currently unknown. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Jdwud2gXmRULuK54HuXz6dO-peocgH4LRBY9_lZ6sRz5fr2UvelLTUFajK7NzLg_FeZ= xHfAVtDvIEw90ZQZMTidGNY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...OUN...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34529634 34489497 33319448 32059417 30429415=20 29369448 28809502 28669543 28919574 29279592=20 29849573 30649556 31329573 31509670 31999716=20 32819703 33379680=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .