Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 14 2023 19:12:12

AWUS01 KWNH 141912
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-150109-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0295
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023

Areas affected...much of Missouri and the southern half of
Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141909Z - 150109Z

Summary...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms will produce
occasional 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates at times this afternoon and
early evening.  Localized/isolated flash flood potential will
exist with this activity.

Discussion...Strong insolation/heating has eroded inhibition in
several areas across the discussion area (especially in Missouri),
leading to isolated to scattered thunderstorm development.  The
storms are in an environment characterized by very weak shear/flow
aloft along with 2000-3500 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.6 inch PW values per
SPC Mesoanalyses.  These moisture/instability profiles, in tandem
with weak flow in most of the troposphere (generally less than 10
knots beneath 500mb) were allowing for ongoing thunderstorms to
produce 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates at times.  The greatest
concentration of cells in the short term should be located across
southwestern Missouri and near the Rolla vicinity, where deeper
vertical cloud development was noted via visible satellite imagery.

The overall regime should persist through at least 01Z this
evening.  With modest low-level flow, there doesn't appear to be
much of a focus for any upscale growth of developing storms, with
loosely organized clusters likely the dominant storm mode through
the evening.   Spots of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates should continue,
with spotty/isolated flash flooding possible as a result.=20
Southern Missouri may be slightly more susceptible to flash flood
potential today in part due to terrain.  Storms should also expand
in coverage and intensity across Illinois later this afternoon,
with a similar regime for flash flood potential located there
beginning after 21Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8K1Fd1ItdZWXPa2amk6iqcy8z975XmzvMemp8UZyfyC7IJYkxVTmTHfevWcqAThgahI9=
mX_agkGbHfTLVoThemEmDIs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40349084 39698847 38468827 37538981 36529331=20
            36959454 38319450 39229427 40079356=20

=3D =3D =3D
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