Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 14 2023 17:25:21 ACUS02 KWNS 141725 SWODY2 SPC AC 141723 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OZARKS AND VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms appear possible on Monday afternoon and evening across the Ozark region and vicinity. Locally damaging winds and isolated hail are expected to be the primary hazards. ....Ozarks and vicinity... A convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move from eastern OK into parts of the Ozarks on Monday, around the periphery of a weakening upper ridge over the Southeast. Meanwhile, an outflow-reinforced surface boundary is expected to become draped somewhere across southern MO/northern AR during the afternoon, with a weak surface low potentially developing along the front in response to the approaching shortwave. Rich low-level moisture and diurnal heating will support MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg range (locally higher) by late afternoon with minimal capping. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected Monday afternoon in the vicinity of the front as the shortwave approaches the region. With modest deep-layer flow/shear in place, multicell clusters appear to be the most likely mode, though a marginal supercell cannot be ruled out where shear may be locally enhanced near the boundary. Locally damaging outflow/downburst gusts may be the most likely hazard, though isolated hail cannot be ruled out, despite generally weak midlevel lapse rates. ....Northwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon and evening across much of the Northwest, in association with a weakening mid/upper-level low that is forecast to become nearly stationary near the Pacific Northwest coast. With generally modest instability and deep-layer shear across the region, the organized severe-thunderstorm threat appears limited at this time, though small hail and gusty winds will be possible with the strongest storms. ...Dean.. 05/14/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .