Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0792
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 14 2023 16:58:20

ACUS11 KWNS 141658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141657=20
MOZ000-142100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0792
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023

Areas affected...parts of southern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141657Z - 142100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated storms are expected form later this
afternoon over southern Missouri. A few may produce locally strong
gusts and marginal hail.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows strong heating will continue
across the region, with a notable cumulus field now developing. The
12Z SGF sounding depicts relatively cool temperatures below 500 mb,
suggesting an uncapped air mass will easily be attained this
afternoon. Ample moisture and continued heating will yield MLCAPE of
1500-2000 J/kg, while weak winds aloft favor pulse and perhaps
multicell storm mode with redevelopment possible on outflows.

...Jewell/Guyer.. 05/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9p-VcS0C_8A9_xrpbGyVFFIYmO2sQNwNpYa7DpK3VGzdr_qSWSh_CbTeFbdQOlTS68_xXTGUy=
P8A4TBIRYu5iw5nApM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   36569324 36589436 36759451 36939456 37299452 38079398
            38319359 38249306 38089277 37889197 37929128 37829086
            37709070 37549079 37219104 36739172 36559219 36569324=20


=3D =3D =3D
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