Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 14 2023 16:32:20

ACUS01 KWNS 141632
SWODY1
SPC AC 141630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible today across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley.

....Mid-Mississippi Valley including Missouri/Illinois...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase this afternoon
initially across northern/eastern Missouri near a weak surface low
and a southeastward-extending front, with additional/more isolated
warm sector development across eastern Kansas and central/southern
Missouri. Over time, storms should build southeastward along the
low-level theta-e/CAPE axis into southern Illinois. Winds aloft are
only modestly strong. Nevertheless, the combination of a moist and
moderately unstable airmass and linear forcing mechanisms along the
front may be sufficient for a few bowing structures posing a risk of
locally damaging winds and hail.

....East Texas...
Within a moist environment, a belt of moderately strong
low/mid-level southerly winds will tend to persist and shift
north-northeastward today on the eastern periphery of a weak low.
Weak mid-level lapse rates along with cloud cover and existing
precipitation will tend to limit overall destabilization, but a few
stronger storms capable of water-loaded downbursts could materialize
this afternoon across eastern Texas.

...Guyer/Moore.. 05/14/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.