Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 14 2023 14:33:38 AWUS01 KWNH 141433 FFGMPD TXZ000-141915- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0294 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1033 AM EDT Sun May 14 2023 Areas affected...southeastern TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 141432Z - 141915Z SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be likely for portions of southeastern TX through 19Z. Where training axes of rain set up, potential for rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr can be expected. Given wet antecedent conditions due to recent rainfall, the risk for flash flooding is higher than average, at least locally. DISCUSSION...A combination of radar and early morning visible satellite imagery showed that the mesoscale circulation that came ashore across Matagorda County was located in Wharton County at 14Z. The highest rain rates (1.0-1.5 in/hr) have been located east of this circulation where a plume of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE was located. The axis of thunderstorms that moved up along the I-45 corridor around 12Z have since weakened in intensity, likely due to weak near surface based CIN but inhibition rapidly decreases and instability rapidly increases with eastward extent into southeastern TX. Low level confluence in the wake of the circulation over Wharton County has been responsible for a recent uptick in convection over Brazoria County, contained within a plume of precipitable water that was between 1.7 and 2.0 inches. Continued convective development is likely in the short term with bands of heavy rain developing and training from south to north where rainfall axes align with the mean steering flow oriented from SSE to NNW. Given the environment in place, rainfall rates should be able to reach 2-3 in/hr at times but the potential for highly localized rates in excess of 3 in/hr cannot be completely ruled out. portions of southeastern TX, especially near, west and north of Houston have recorded 2 to 4+ inches of rain over the past 24 hours, increasing the potential for runoff from heavy rain. While coverage might be somewhat limited, the potential for at least localized flash flooding is considered likely over the next few hours. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9SRQhlY9U2h6mO8MmndNwI75VOeGeyfFJG-mxNAQhD_u9Bw3awaPmlprCQD_UzH4xNw1= 3q32DnOTZ-PWBQ32iHlyiTw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32369643 32369554 32139516 31149464 29369461=20 28749534 28409615 28759649 30139698 31819731=20 32299700=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .